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Mounting concerns are present regarding the possibility of military engagement between East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Despite ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on social media from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the military, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this system and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war occurred, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a move that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's previous armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.