A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
